It has been another difficult season for the Baltimore Orioles, and a large part of that has been the inconsistency at the top of the starting rotation.
Despite missing most of 2024 and 2025 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, president of baseball operations and acting-GM Mike Elias entered 2026 with no reservations about Kyle Bradish leading the staff.
While that decision drew criticism, the reasoning was understandable. Bradish returned in August 2025 looking much like the pitcher he was before the injury, posting a 2.53 ERA, 2.67 xFIP and 2.63 SIERA with a 37.3% strikeout rate across 32 innings.
This season, however, the Orioles have not consistently seen that version of Bradish. The highs have been impressive, but the lows have been difficult to ignore, leaving him with a 3.64 ERA through his first 16 starts.
The underlying metrics offer little additional encouragement. Bradish owns a 4.04 FIP, 3.81 xFIP and 4.10 SIERA, all of which closely mirror his ERA.
So, why is there still confidence that Bradish can be a front-line starter despite the lack of elite results? The answer lies in the flashes he continues to show.
Over his last eight outings, Bradish has posted a 2.63 ERA and recorded five quality starts. That stretch was highlighted by a dominant performance in Seattle, where he allowed one run across 7.2 innings while striking out 12, and followed that impressive outing with eight scoreless innings and nine strikeouts in Anaheim.
The biggest question surrounding Bradish is what has caused such dramatic swings from start to start.
The most obvious culprit is command. Bradish’s 11% walk rate is well above his career mark of 8.6%. He has issued at least three walks in 11 of his 16 starts, helping inflate his WHIP to 1.45. Sustaining success with that level of traffic on the bases is difficult for any pitcher.
The pitch he most needs to regain feel for is his curveball. In recent years, it has been one of baseball’s most effective offerings, but this season it carries a minus-five run value that ranks in the fourth percentile. The pitch is still generating whiffs at a 42.2% rate, but inconsistent command has prevented him from using it as reliably as he has in the past.
Starts like his outings in Seattle and Anaheim serve as reminders of just how dominant the pitch can be when he is locating it.
Bradish also has not received much help from the defense behind him. In games he has started, the Orioles have produced a fielding run value of minus-four, meaning a league-average defense likely would have prevented four additional runs.
Command issues are common for pitchers returning from UCL reconstruction surgery, and Bradish appears to be no exception. Until he fully regains that feel, there will likely be some bumps along the way. Still, the flashes of dominance have been too frequent to ignore.
We have seen Bradish look like the elite starter he was before the injury, and for now, there is still every reason to believe he can remain the ace of this Orioles staff.
What are your thoughts on Kyle Bradish’s season thus far? Let us know in the comments below! Make sure to follow The Baltimore Battery on Facebook, X, Bluesky and TikTok, and use the hashtag #baltimorebattery when sharing our content!
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