The Baltimore Orioles entered this offseason with three major objectives.
Those objectives were to bring in a middle-of-the-order bat, bolster the bullpen and acquire several quality starting pitchers.
Acquiring Pete Alonso, Ryan Helsley, Andrew Kittredge and Shane Baz was a fantastic start for president of baseball operations and acting-GM Mike Elias, but fans were never going to approve of his work until a true front-line starter was bound for Baltimore.
Left-hander Ranger Suárez quickly became a name to watch, with some fans even thinking it was only a matter of time before a deal was announced. However, we all know that free agency is unpredictable, and an increasingly desperate Boston Red Sox team landed Suárez on a five-year, $130 million contract.
Understandably, Birdland fans were always going to be disappointed, especially losing out to a division rival. In our opinion, this is far from detrimental to the O’s offseason to-do list, and it, in fact, might even help it out.
Left-hander Framber Valdez remains available on the market, and you could very well argue that he is the more talented southpaw between he and Suárez and is much more worthy of the top-of-the-market money the O’s were going to have to pay regardless.
We will be the first to say that Ranger Suárez is a very good pitcher, who undoubtedly would have made the Orioles better. However, it is tough to believe he will ever be a $130 million pitcher.
Excluding Shohei Ohtani, there are now nine active starting pitchers with contracts over $100 million. To make this comparison, we will be using two statistics, SIERA (skill interactive earned run average) and strikeout percentage to see how Suárez stacks up.
SIERA is an analytic that we believe does a better job than its counterparts ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, etc. at predicting future success.
- Gerrit Cole – SIERA: 3.28, K%: 28.6
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – SIERA: 3.26, K%: 29.1
- Blake Snell – SIERA: 3.78, K% 30.1
- Jacob deGrom – SIERA: 3.01, K%: 30.6
- Dylan Cease – SIERA: 3.83, K%: 28.6
- Garrett Crochet – SIERA: 2.96, K%: 31.8
- Tyler Glasnow – SIERA: 3.46, K%: 30.9
- Zack Wheeler – SIERA: 3.62, K%: 25.7
- Ranger Suárez – SIERA: 3.92, K%: 22.1
Five of the nine $100+ million pitchers have a SIERA sub 3.50, and seven of the nine have a K% over 28%. Suárez clocks in with the highest SIERA and lowest K% of the bunch.
Since it is relevant, Valdez has a career SIERA of 3.63 with a K% at 23.5%, which admittedly, also does not stack up great on this list.
More importantly, here is a breakdown of Valdez and Suárez throughout their careers.
Ranger Suárez: ERA: 3.38, xERA: 3.61, FIP: 3.54, xFIP: 3.68, SIERA: 3.92, K%: 22.1, BB%: 7.5, HR/9: 0.83, WHIP: 1.27, GB%: 52.0
Framber Valdez: ERA: 3.36, xERA: 3.76, FIP: 3.51, xFIP: 3.34, SIERA: 3.63, K%: 23.5, BB%: 8.7, HR/9: 0.72, WHIP: 1.20, GB%: 61.8
Statistically, it is undoubtedly close, but you do start to see why Valdez is the more enticing option to add to your rotation.
Next up, let’s dive into some savant data. For this, we will be sticking to 2025 data only.
Ranger Suárez: Fastball Velo: 90.5 (7th percentile), Avg Exit Velo: 86.5 (95th percentile), Chase%: 30.5 (78th percentile), Whiff%: 22.2 (24th percentile), Barrel%: 5.5 (89th percentile), Hard-Hit%: 31.1 (98th percentile)
Framber Valdez: Fastball Velo: 94.2 (47th percentile), Avg Exit Velo: 90.8 (10th percentile), Chase%: 29.8 (68th percentile), Whiff% 26.6 (59th percentile), Barrel% 6.7 (76th percentile), Hard-Hit%: 46.3 (9th percentile)
There is no getting around this one, as Suárez had one of the best seasons of his career last season, while Valdez was very pedestrian. However, that does not discredit the track record Valdez has put together.
Finally, we wanted to go over the major red flags we had with Suárez in earlier articles written this offseason.
Over his last four seasons, his workloads are as follows:
2022: 29 starts / 155.1 IP / 5.1 IP per start
2023: 22 starts / 125 IP / 5.2 IP per start
2024: 27 starts / 150.2 IP / 5.2 IP per start
2025: 26 starts / 157.1 IP / 6 IP per start
On the other hand, Valdez’s workloads in that time frame look like this:
2022: 31 starts / 201.1 IP / 6.1 IP per start
2023: 31 starts / 198 IP / 6.1 IP per start
2024: 28 starts / 176.1 IP / 6.1 IP per start
2025: 31 starts /192 IP / 6.1 IP per start
The best ability is availability, and no pitcher embodies that motto quite like Valdez, who not only has made 28+ starts in four consecutive seasons but also manages to give his team a quality start every time he goes out there.
The other key factor that scared us with Suárez is a trend he has seemingly been unable to break his entire career: the second-half nosedive.
Over the last three seasons, Suarez’s splits are as follows:
2023: 3.77 ERA in first half, 4.57 ERA in second half
2024: 2.76 ERA in first half, 5.65 ERA in second half
2025: 2.15 ERA in first half, 4.40 ERA in second half
Phillies fans have mentioned this trend for years, and the numbers do back it up. Suárez consistently regresses in the second half of seasons, and that is a major concern to have for someone you expect to headline your rotation.
At the end of the day, Suárez is undoubtedly very good, and he will be a thorn in the O’s side in Boston.
However, Valdez offers very similar, if not better, production and would give the Birds much-needed innings and length that they have struggled to find for years.
We still think Valdez is the best option in free agency and should have been the O’s focus even when Suárez was available.
We want to hear from you, though. Did the Orioles fumble by not going after Suárez more aggressively, or is Valdez the cream of the crop?
Let us know in the comments below! Make sure to follow The Baltimore Battery on Facebook, X, Bluesky and TikTok, and use the hashtag #baltimorebattery when sharing our content!
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