With the offseason waning and final rosters starting to materialize, the Baltimore Orioles have become a popular pick as a team to regress in 2025, not only by experts but by an alarming number of its own fanbase.
I would like to preface this by saying it has been an objectively disappointing offseason for the Birds. However, the organization still has a plethora of young talent locked down for the foreseeable future. As long as that lasts, the competitive window will remain open in Baltimore.
Of course, any time you bring that up, people are going to point to the losses of Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander, and both definitely sting. But, here are a few ways the Orioles can still survive.
ELITE OFFENSE
Let’s make this very clear. The Oriole offense is still nothing short of elite.
I am a big believer that the Anthony Santander departure was planned from the start of the offseason and that GM Mike Elias can replace him in the aggregate with the likes of Tyler O’Neill, Ramón Laureano and Heston Kjerstad, should he remain with the Orioles.
If you don’t want to take my word for it, take the word of just about every projection model out there. You might be familiar with Thomas Nestico, who makes great content on X (@TJStats). I wanted to highlight a few of his posts.
The first is the wRC+ projection for every major league team based on five popular projection models. Weighted runs created plus essentially quantifies how well a hitter performs compared to league average, with 100 being that of an average hitter.
Here are a few different models projecting the wRC+ for the O’s this coming season:
- Steamer – 110
- ATC – 109
- The Bat – 110
- Zips – 111
- OOPSY – 112
This averages out to a wRC+ of 110, which would rank second in Major League Baseball behind the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Using those same models, here are the Orioles’ home run projections for 2025.
- Steamer – 229
- ATC – 239
- The Bat – 240
- Zips – 218
- OOPSY – 215
Coming out to an average of 228 home runs, that would project the Orioles for to hit the fifth most homers in all of baseball. Long story short, the Birds shouldn’t have a hard time scoring any runs, but that was never expected to be a problem.
HEALTHY PITCHING STAFF
Once again, the following stats were put together by Thomas Nestico, but for pitching, he used ERA+, which simply takes a pitchers ERA and factors it against the entire league, accounting for variables like ballpark dimensions, once again with 100 being average.
Here is the Orioles projected ERA+ by the same models we used before:
- Steamer – 100
- ATC – 100
- The Bat – 95
- Zips – 100
- OOPSY – 98
That would come out to an average ERA+ projection of 99, tied for 20th in Major League Baseball.
As alarming as that sounds, you’re probably not aware this is familiar territory for the Orioles. Just last year, even with Corbin Burnes leading the rotation, the O’s had an ERA+ of 96, which also ranked 20th in MLB.
That’s right. Everyone seems to forget that the O’s pitching staff wasn’t great last year. While I, like many of you, do agree that I’d much rather the Birds went out and got an ace, it’s still fair to say the replacement for Burnes might just be health.
Grayson Rodriguez is expected to be healthy. Baltimore will have Zach Eflin for a full season. There is some optimism about a late-season Kyle Bradish return, and perhaps most importantly, the return of a fully healthy Felix Bautista in the bullpen.
Not to mention, the farm system is still strong enough to acquire an ace should they really need one at the trade deadline.
BOUNCE BACK YEARS
Adley Rutschman is a guy I’m very confident will bounce back in a big way.
Even with his down 2024, his 13.3 career fWAR is the most by a catcher in their first three years in MLB history.
A returned-to-form Adley, Jordan Westburg for a full season and a Jackson Holliday breakout should be more than enough for the Orioles to not only replicate but perhaps even surpass their 2024 OPS+ of 118.
IN TOTAL
Projections are a bit all over the place with the Orioles, as PECOTA has them winning 89 games, finishing second in the AL East with a 77.5% chance to make the postseason, while Fangraphs has Baltimore winning 82 games, finishing third in the AL East with a 43.9% chance at a postseason berth.
However, it is worth noting that Fangraphs has been low on Baltimore in both 2023 and 2024, so this is nothing new from them.
The 2025 campaign should definitely be an interesting one in Birdland, and I totally get the resentment the fanbase has for the front office right now. However, adding an ace is not anywhere near as easy as it sounds.
Baltimore still boasts one of the best offenses in baseball, a much improved bullpen and a rotation I think can sit around league average, giving the Orioles a good chance to win 90+ games for the third consecutive year.
What are your expectations for the 2025 Orioles season? Let us know in the comments below! Make sure to follow The Baltimore Battery on Facebook, Twitter (X) and TikTok, and use the hashtag #baltimorebattery when sharing our content!
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