In January of this year, I wrote an article where I tried to predict how the starting lineup for the Orioles would perform during the 2023 season.
Using a formula I created based on season stats, career totals and streaks, accumulating seven, 15 and 30 games, I did my best to predict how my projected starting nine would perform. It’s now time to revisit and see how accurate I was.
CEDRIC MULLINS – CF
Projection – G: 157, AB: 558 H: 166, R: 90, 2B: 32, 3B: 5, RBI: 65, BB: 70, SO: 130, SB: 26, Slash – .274/.381/.442/.823
Actual – G: 116, AB: 404, H: 94, R: 51, 2B: 23, 3B: 3, RBI: 74, BB: 43, SO: 101, SB: 19, Slash – .233/.305/.416/.721
Cedric Mullins was on to a pretty good season until a groin injury caused him to miss a month on two separate occasions.
While his average, on-base and slugging all are reflected in his battle to get his bat going, Mullins probably would have hit the doubles, triples and stolen base marks if not for his injury. He did surpass the projected RBI total, and his defense was a huge benefit to the team in 2023.
ADLEY RUTSCHMAN – C
Projection – G: 141, AB: 564 R: 87, H: 144, 2B: 39, 3B: 1, HR: 21, RBI: 72, BB: 73, SO: 107, SB: 5, Slash – .254/.382/.620/1.002
Actual – G: 154, AB: 588, R: 84, H: 163, 2B: 31, 3B: 1, HR: 20, RBI: 80, BB: 92, SO: 101, SB: 1, Slash – .277/.374/.435/.809
Adley Rutschman quickly established himself as one of the best all-around catchers in baseball. Earning his first All-Star nod, a Silver Slugger Award and being named a finalist for a Gold Glove Award, Rutschman was a huge catalyst for the Birds in 2023.
Rutschman exceeded predictions in games, at-bats, hits, doubles, RBIs, walks and batting average. While I was in the ballpark on runs, triples, home runs, strikeouts and on-base percentage, I was left in the parking lot when it came to average, slugging percentage and OPS.
GUNNAR HENDERSON – 3B
Projection – G: 146, AB: 584, R: 60, H: 151, 2B: 35, 3B: 4, HR: 20, RBI: 77, BB: 68, SO: 141, SB: 17, Slash – .259/.375/.635/1.010
Actual: G: 150, AB: 560, R: 100, H: 143, 2B: 29, 3B: 9, HR: 28, RBI: 82, BB: 56, SO: 159, SB: 10, Slash – .255/.325/.489/.814
Like Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson was a stalwart for the Orioles in 2023. His season was a magical one, as the young phenom would win AL Rookie of the Year, a Silver Slugger Award and lead all rookies in home runs, extra-base hits and runs scored.
Predictions wise, I remained in the ballpark on most offensive categories. Though I was way off on OBP, SLG, OPS, runs and triples, I would say the prediction was pretty close to the production.
ANTHONY SANTANDER – RF
Projection: G: 131, AB: 458, R: 63, H: 112, 2B: 24, 3B: 0, HR: 26, RBI: 71, BB: 34, SO: 109, SB: 0, Slash – .244/.319/.513/.832
Actual: G: 153, AB: 591, R: 81, H: 152, 2B: 41, 3B: 1, HR: 28, RBI: 95, BB: 55, SO: 152, SB: 5, Slash – .257/.325/.472/.797
Anthony Santander completely demolished all predictions outside of home runs and OBP. I was way off on the other categories. Santander’s 2023 season made him a hot commodity for either an extension or a trade.
Tony turned out to be a clutch, top of the order hitter that you couldn’t take out of the lineup, as he was named a finalist for a Silver Slugger Award. He would lead the team in most offensive categories, including RBIs, home runs and doubles.
RYAN MOUNTCASTLE – 1B
Projection – G: 145, AB: 507, R: 68, H: 133, 2B: 24, 3B: 0, HR: 28, RBI: 88, BB: 43, SO: 154, SB: 4, Slash – .262/.347/.580/.927
Actual – G: 115, AB: 423, R: 64, H: 114, 2B: 21, 3B: 1, HR: 18, RBI: 68, BB: 37, SO: 107, SB: 3, Slash – .270/.328/.452/.780
While Ryan Mountcastle had a couple of IL stints, he was at his best towards the second half of the season. He would finish with more than a third of his hits for extra bases, and while his strikeout totals are still high, he possesses good pop with an aggressive approach, as he saw a career-low 3.7 pitches per at-bat.
Even with Mountcastle missing time with two separate stints on the IL, he managed to be around our predictions for runs, doubles, walks, stolen bases and batting average. Mounty just completed his third full season in the big leagues, and the opportunity to explode will be there, as he will be just 27 years old entering next season.
AUSTIN HAYS – LF
Projection – G: 140, AB: 462, R: 70, H: 119, 2B: 26, 3B: 2, HR: 14, RBI: 65, BB: 32, SO: 110, SB: 4, Slash – .258/.327/.478/.805
Actual – G: 144, AB: 520, R: 76, H: 143, 2B: 36, 3B: 2, HR: 16, RBI: 67, BB: 38, SO: 141, SB: 5, Slash – .275/.325/.444/.769
Austin Hays established himself last year as a prime defensive player in left field. Playing in front of Mount Waltimore, Hays passed the eye test and was even a finalist in the Gold Glove nominees.
Offensively, Hays had a strong year, as his projections weren’t too far off from his actual numbers, as games played, runs, triples, home runs, RBIs, walks and on-base percentage were all categories where projections and actual numbers were close.
KYLE STOWERS – DH
Projection – G: 128, AB: 346, R: 42, H: 85, 2B: 15, 3B: 3, HR: 13, RBI: 42, BB: 19, SO: 109, Slash – .246/.301/.363/.664
Actual – G: 14, AB: 30, R: 1, H: 2, 2B: 0, 3B: 0, HR: 0, RBI: 0, BB: 3, SO: 12, Slash – .067/.153/.067/.219
I will admit, my fandom of Kyle Stowers had me thinking he would play a significant role for the team in 2023. The reality is that Stowers just wasn’t good enough to remain on the big league team.
He finished his season in the minors with a couple of IL stints and was not a factor at all for the Birds in 2023. In all fairness, Colton Cowser was also unable to remain on the roster, and Heston Kjerstad played predominantly as a DH. Whether Stowers is a part of the future or not, the potential is there, but I struck out big time on this projection.
ADAM FRAZIER – 2B
Projection – G: 117, AB: 318, R: 53, H: 88, 2B: 17, 3B: 3, HR: 6, RBI: 36, BB: 32, SO: 55, SB: 6, Slash – .264/.377/.308/.685
Actual – G: 141, AB: 412, R: 59, H: 99, 2B: 21, 3B: 2, HR: 13, RBI: 60, BB: 32, SO: 68, SB: 11, Slash – .240/.300/.396/.696
Adam Frazier, despite a lot of backlash, was just the right sparkplug for the Orioles in 2023. Starting out as the primary second baseman, he would eventually give way to top prospect, Jordan Westburg, and while some projections were missed, Frazier’s actual stats were close in runs, hits, doubles, triples, walks and OPS.
Frazier was brought in as a filler and did what the Orioles needed. While it wasn’t what some fans wanted, Fraz did all he was asked to do and gave it his all when he played, even coming up with some of the most clutch hits of the season.
JORGE MATEO – SS
Projection: G: 138, AB: 370, R: 50, H: 90, 2B: 23, 3B: 5, HR: 10, RBI: 38, BB: 20, SO: 121, SB: 26, Slash – .243/.297/.383/.680
Actual – G: 114, AB: 318, R: 58, H: 69, 2B: 14, 3B: 2, HR: 7, RBI: 34, BB: 22, SO: 82, SB: 32, Slash – .217/.267/.340/.607
Jorge Mateo, a surprise defensive player in 2022, is well known for his game-changing speed. His bat just doesn’t seem to catch up, as, eventually, Mateo was replaced at shortstop by AL Rookie of the Year, Gunnar Henderson.
Projection-wise, I had higher expectations than what Mateo actually produced. While runs, home runs, RBI and walks were relatively close, Mateo’s actual numbers were vastly different from the projections.
This was a fun project to do and compare against after the season ended. While most of my projections for average, slugging and OPS were vastly different, I think I did fairly well with other offensive categories, based on the history of the player.
With a new season just around the corner, I will see what my 2024 season projections look like as we approach spring training. With another year of experience for players like Henderson, Rutschman and Westburg, next year’s projections should be rather interesting, so stay tuned.
What player stat stood out to you from this past season? Let us know in the comments below! Make sure to follow The Baltimore Battery on Facebook, Twitter (X) and TikTok, and use the hashtag #baltimorebattery when sharing our content!
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