For the Baltimore Orioles, the Opening Day starter is more than ceremonial.
It is a signal — of trust, of trajectory, of how a club views its present and future.
As the Orioles look assert themselves atop the American League East once again, two men present compelling but distinct cases to take the ball first: Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish.
Each offers a different version of what ace can mean in 2026. Let’s take a look at why each man has a case to take the mound at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Thursday, March 26, against the Minnesota Twins.
THE CASE FOR TREVOR ROGERS
1. A Return to Frontline Form
When Rogers is right, he misses bats at an elite rate.
In his 2021 All-Star season with the Miami Marlins, he posted a 2.64 ERA and struck out 157 batters in 133 innings, good for a 28.5% strikeout rate. His fastball-changeup combination remains among the more difficult pairings for left-handed hitters to square up, and his whiff rate on his changeup has hovered well north of 35%.
If his 2025 is any indication — with improved command and a strikeout rate pushing back toward his career norms — the Orioles could view him as a reemerging top-of-the-rotation arm.
2. A Left-Handed Look
There is strategic value in deploying a left-hander against Minnesota’s projected lineup.
The Twins’ core features several left-handed bats and switch hitters, who are more comfortable seeing right-handers on the mound. Rogers’ ability to work glove-side gives Baltimore a contrasting look to open the series.
Minnesota has traditionally built its offense around pull-side power and elevated contact. A lefty who can change eye levels and neutralize right-handed thump, while forcing left-handed hitters to handle pitches in on the hands, disrupts that rhythm.
3. Swing-and-Miss Upside
Rogers’ career strikeout rate north of 26% underscores a skill that plays in any ballpark.
Against a Twins lineup that can string together extra-base damage when pitchers live in the zone, the ability to miss bats becomes paramount.
If the Orioles prioritize upside and early tone-setting, Rogers does present the high-variance, high-reward choice.
THE CASE FOR KYLE BRADISH
1. Proven High-Leverage Success
Bradish has already demonstrated that he can thrive in meaningful games.
In 2023, he posted a 2.83 ERA across 168.2 innings, holding opponents to a .220 average and finishing among the league leaders in ERA. His ability to navigate deep lineups without imploding under pressure helped solidify Baltimore’s postseason standing, as he did start Game 1 of the 2023 ALDS.
Opening Day carries its own October-like energy, and Bradish has shown he can operate in that space comfortably.
2. A True Workhorse Profile
When healthy, Bradish has shown the ability to shoulder volume.
His pitch mix — anchored by a sharp, late-breaking slider that generated a whiff rate north of 35% in 2023 — allows him to navigate lineups multiple times. He limits hard contact and keeps the ball in the yard, critical traits in early-season conditions when offenses are still searching for timing.
Durability and efficiency often tip Opening Day decisions toward the pitcher most likely to give six-plus quality innings. Bradish has proven he can do that on a consistent basis.
3. Internal Leadership and Continuity
There is symbolic value in rewarding the arm that helped shift the Orioles from rebuild to contender.
Bradish has grown alongside the O’s young core, taking meaningful starts in September and October. Opening Day is as much a statement to the clubhouse and fans as it is to the opponent.
Naming Bradish would reinforce continuity and show that Bradish is, in fact, who the Orioles and Birdland think he is and will be in this league — a Cy Young contender.
If the Orioles want ceiling and swing-and-miss electricity against Minnesota’s power threats, Rogers makes a persuasive case. If they prefer stability and a proven hand in high-leverage settings, Bradish is the logical choice.
Either way, manager Craig Albernaz enters Opening Day with options. That, more than anything, reflects how far the organization has come.
Plus, whoever does not get the call in the first game of the season will undoubtedly take the mound in the second — one could argue an even more crucial outing.
What are your thoughts on who should get the ball on Opening Day? Let us know in the comments below! Make sure to follow The Baltimore Battery on Facebook, X, Bluesky and TikTok, and use the hashtag #baltimorebattery when sharing our content!
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