Pitchers and catchers will report in just a few short weeks, and the Baltimore Orioles’ 2026 roster is beginning to take shape.
While the club still appears likely to add at least one more starter before spring training begins, the O’s lineup itself seems largely set heading into the upcoming season.
Most of the attention will understandably fall on the pitching staff, which was a major disappointment in 2025. However, the player with the greatest influence on how Baltimore’s 2026 campaign ultimately unfolds is Jackson Holliday, making him the Orioles’ key X-Factor for the season.
To briefly recap Holliday’s career to this point, the Orioles made the somewhat controversial decision to select him first overall in the 2022 MLB Draft. Any doubt surrounding that decision was quickly erased.
Holliday tore through the minor leagues, reaching Triple-A Norfolk just one year after being drafted at only 19 years old and earning Minor League Player of the Year honors in 2023. Across 218 minor league games, he slashed .304/.442/.486 with 23 home runs, becoming the rare unanimous No. 1 prospect in all of baseball.
With that level of early success, expectations were sky-high when Holliday received his first major league call-up in April of 2024. Unfortunately, the transition has not been seamless. To this point, he has struggled to consistently find his footing at the big league level.
Holliday has now appeared in 209 MLB games, and while there was noticeable improvement in 2025, his career slash line of .229/.300/.360/.660 leaves room for growth. From an analytical standpoint, his 87 career wRC+ indicates he has performed 13 percent below league average offensively.
The defensive transition to second base has also presented challenges. In 2025, Holliday posted a -6 fielding run value, placing him in the 14th percentile among qualified defenders at the position.
That brings us to 2026, when Holliday is expected to serve as the Orioles’ everyday second baseman for the second consecutive season, with a prime opportunity to establish himself as the All-Star caliber player he was projected to become.
So, why does Holliday earn the X-Factor designation? Consider Baltimore’s offensive trajectory in recent seasons.
In 2023, the Orioles ranked 12th in baseball with a team wRC+ of 104. That number jumped to 114 in 2024, good for fourth-best in the league, as the Birds’ lineup appeared poised to become one of the game’s premier young offenses. Instead, the production fell sharply in 2025, as Baltimore slipped to 20th with a 96 wRC+.
Holliday was not solely responsible for that regression, as injuries and under-performance plagued the roster throughout the season. The offseason additions of Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward should provide a significant boost and help return the Orioles to above-average offensive production.
However, if Baltimore hopes to reclaim a spot among the league’s elite lineups, it will need more from the second base position.
Despite the lack of consistent results, the underlying metrics suggest Holliday still possesses the tools that made him a standout prospect. His elite hit tool and plate discipline, long considered his calling cards, remain intact.
Several statistics help illustrate this, including squared-up percentage, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate and walk rate. Below is how Holliday has performed over his first two MLB seasons, with the caveat that 2024 represents a relatively small sample size:
2024:
Squared-Up%: 24.2
Chase%: 27.2
Whiff%: 34.1
K%: 33.2
BB%: 7.2
2025:
Squared-Up%: 27.2 (+3.0%)
Chase%: 22.3 (-4.9%)
Whiff%: 24.5 (-9.6%)
K%: 21.6 (-11.6%)
BB%: 8.6 (+1.4%)
Holliday made significant strides across the board in 2025, improving both his bat-to-ball skills and the quality of his contact.
His wRC+ jumped 34 points from 62 to 96, his OPS climbed by 125 points from .565 to .690 and his power began to surface, as he launched a team-leading 17 home runs, eighth most among second basemen overall.
The flashes are clearly there, and there is little reason for concern regarding Holliday’s long-term outlook.
Consistency will be the next step, but if he takes another leap forward in 2026, he could become a critical piece in lengthening an already talented Orioles lineup and pushing Baltimore back into contention in a fiercely competitive AL East.
What are your thoughts on Jackson Holliday and his significance to the Orioles? Let us know in the comments below! Make sure to follow The Baltimore Battery on Facebook, X, Bluesky and TikTok, and use the hashtag #baltimorebattery when sharing our content!
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