The Baltimore Orioles headed into the 2025 All-Star Break on an incredibly sour note.
Even after a strong June and start to July, the Birds are still nine games below .500 and 7.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. You’re never out of it until you’re out of it, but the door is starting to close on the 2025 campaign.
With that being said, the silver lining of the season is left-hander Trevor Rogers, who most Oriole fans were ready to part ways with by any means just a few months ago. Yet, the 27-year-old southpaw has dominated for the O’s since coming off the IL, a complete 180 from his performance in 2024.
Unfortunately for Trevor Rogers, O’s fans will always tie him to Kyle Stowers, whom he was traded for last season. Stowers has blossomed in Miami, making his first All-Star appearance and sending Orioles social media into an even further frenzy after his three-homer, five-hit performance against the O’s to close out the first half.
Two things can be true, though, as the Orioles probably overpaid for Rogers at the deadline. However, Rogers still has a high ceiling as a starter and will be a massive component to any success the O’s have moving forward.
So, what exactly is different from 2024 Trevor Rogers, who posted a 7.11 ERA with Baltimore? Well, you could argue that it’s as simple as throwing the baseball faster.
In 2024, Rogers’ average fastball clocked in at 91.7 mph (16th percentile). In 2025, he has seen that jump to 93.5 mph (35th percentile). This has allowed Rogers to throw his fastball more often (32% usage rate in 2024, 41% in 2025) and find success with the pitch once again.
The average exit velocity on his fastball in 2025 is at 87.9 mph with a 26% whiff rate. For reference, the average exit velocity on Rogers’ heater in 2024 was 92.2 mph with a 23.3% whiff rate.
The other bonus to having confidence in your fastball is that your offspeed pitches become much better. Rogers’ offspeed run value in 2024 was an abysmal -5 (9th percentile). In 2025, that’s up to an ORV of 3 (87th percentile).
The former first-round pick has also added a sweeper to his arsenal, which has been his best pitch, even in a small sample size. That pitch has only been thrown 7% of the time this season, but opposing hitters have yet to record a hit off it and are whiffing at it 55% of the time.
One of Rogers’ biggest strengths has always been his deception, and he has seemingly remastered that this year as well. His 25.7% whiff rate is up 4.8% from 2024. Naturally, that has increased his strikeout rate from 17.3 to 23.9.
Another plus to his deception, Rogers has been practically impossible to barrel up. His 4.4% barrel rate is in the 93rd percentile.
Walks also killed Rogers in 2024, when he posted a 10% walk rate. Slashing that to 7.5% has almost certainly played a role in lowering his WHIP from 1.58 to 0.82.
Rogers’ advanced stats also support his success being sustainable. We’re not sure he’ll maintain a 1.53 ERA, but a 2.94 xERA, 2.57 FIP, 3.59 xFIP and 3.71 SIERA (quantifies a pitcher’s performance by trying to eliminate factors the pitcher can’t control by himself) all indicate that Trevor Rogers is pitching like his former All-Star status.
Let’s be clear. Losing Stowers was a net negative for the Orioles, but a serviceable left-handed mid-rotation starter with front-line upside is still a valuable asset, especially for a team with almost none of that. Rogers pitching like this would be huge for the Orioles if they are actually serious about trying to contend next season.
Are you buying the Trevor Rogers resurgence, or was losing Kyle Stowers too big of a blow? Let us know in the comments below! Make sure to follow The Baltimore Battery on Facebook, X, Bluesky and TikTok, and use the hashtag #baltimorebattery when sharing our content!
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