The Baltimore Orioles’ 2025 campaign is now just over 50 days away, and unfortunately, the Birds have yet to address their number one priority this offseason, which was either retaining Corbin Burnes, or adequately replacing him.
Unless you’re a part of the minority that is on board with a Jack Flaherty reunion in Charm City, the free agency market has just about dried up, as nobody remaining projects to be much of a needle-mover for the O’s. However, that does not mean all hope is lost.
Burnes was a trade acquisition last February, and seeing that Baltimore will likely need to take that route again, this year’s perfect trade partner is the San Diego Padres. The Fryers seem to be headed towards a roster retool and has two aces set to be free agents in 2026 in Dylan Cease and Michael King.
If you’re looking for potential packages the Orioles could put together, that is a topic for another article. However, I wanted to dive into some of the numbers between the two and see who would best headline the Orioles’ 2025 rotation.
OPTION 1: MICHAEL KING
King was the headliner in the massive haul San Diego acquired last offseason when they shipped Juan Soto cross country to the Bronx. I’m not sure it’s possible to win a trade when you lose a player the caliber of Soto, but King made it pretty close. In 30 starts for the Padres, King posted a 2.95 ERA and 1.192 WHIP while striking out 201 batters.
He played a huge role in the Padres surprising people last year, coming up just one win short of a trip to the NLCS. But just how good was King? Well, here’s what the numbers say.
- FIP: 3.33
- xFIP: 3.50
- ERA+: 139
- SIERA (Skill-interactive Earned Run Average – quantifies a pitcher’s performance by trying to eliminate factors the pitcher can’t control by himself): 3.63
- fWAR: 3.9
- bWAR: 4.2
- Whiff%: 29.3 (78th percentile)
- BB%: 8.7 (39th percentile)
- Hard-Hit%: 30.3 (97th percentile)
Obviously, King was dominant across the board, with his best pitch being his changeup that had a run value of 10, which is 99th percentile in all of baseball. He also mixes in a four-seam fastball, sinker, sweeper and, occasionally, a slider. His ability to generate whiffs as well as all of his advanced metrics sitting in a good spot suggest King should be a very effective pitcher for the foreseeable future.
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsKing of the Hill. 👑
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 2, 2024
Michael King's 12 Strikeouts. pic.twitter.com/VwXfq9sW74
OPTION 2: DYLAN CEASE
I’ve already touched on Dylan Cease in previous articles, but like King, he was also brought to San Diego via trade in the same offseason.
Before this year, Cease had made himself into quite the polarizing figure, finishing second in AL Cy Young voting in 2022 with a 2.20 ERA but falling off a cliff in 2023, pitching to a 4.58 ERA. This had many clubs skeptical of the right-hander, but the stuff was always there, and he proved that in 2024, rebounding with a 3.47 ERA, 1.067 WHIP and striking out 224 batters.
Much like his co-ace, Cease was a huge contributor to the Padres exceeding expectations, but here is how the numbers stack up.
- FIP: 3.10
- xFIP: 3.44
- ERA+: 118
- SIERA: 3.46
- fWAR: 4.8
- bWAR: 4.2
- Whiff%: 32.4 (92nd percentile)
- BB%: 8.5 (41st percentile)
- Hard-Hit%: 38.6 (51st percentile)
The biggest thing that stood out to me is that while Cease was better just about completely across the board, opponents saw much greater quality of contact against him than King, as seen in the percentile differences. It’s hard to explain, but my best attempt at it is that generating as many swing and misses as he does allows him to live with the hard contact, since the strikeouts make up for it.
Durability-wise, Cease holds up well. He does have a Tommy John surgery on his record back in 2014, but it hasn’t mounted to any lingering issues, as 2024 was Cease’s fourth consecutive year making over 30 starts.
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsDylan Cease's 4th and 5th Ks. pic.twitter.com/uupd86OyMi
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 6, 2024
King, on the other hand, has never needed Tommy John surgery but did suffer a pretty gruesome elbow fracture in 2022, which ended his season and required surgery. He returned in 2023 in a starter/reliever hybrid role with the Yankees and pitched to a 2.75 ERA in 104.2 innings, on top of the 173.2 he threw this past season.
What you likely didn’t know is that King is actually older than Cease by eight months, though both are still only 29. However, that doesn’t change much for me. If I were the Orioles, I would much rather have Michael King.
I know that Cease was better in 2024, but this was King’s first year as a starter, and as an overall pitcher, he’s proven to have a significantly higher floor. While the sample size is smaller, King has had a sub three ERA for three straight seasons now, and his ability to pitch to soft contact, while also generating strikeouts, makes him a safer option than Cease, who I believe is closer to an average pitcher than an elite one.
I do think King would be more expensive, so whether or not that factors into any potential Mike Elias decision, we’ll have to wait and see. But in a vacuum, King would elevate the Orioles’ rotation to higher levels than Cease would.
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsWe ranked the Top 10 Michael King landing spots amid trade rumors 💭 @zachrymer pic.twitter.com/Q7MdcYv1vM
— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) January 30, 2025
A lot more goes into this than just numbers, of course. To this writer, King’s track record is more consistent than that of Cease, who is very pedestrian when he isn’t striking batters out at incredible rates. That’s not to say I wouldn’t be happy with either because they are both clear upgrades to the pitching staff.
It is worth noting that the Padres have agreed with King on a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2026 to avoid arbitration.
If Elias wants to maximize the Orioles’ championship odds, Michael King is the answer.
I’m just one person, though. Who do you want headlining the Orioles’ staff in 2025? Let us know in the comments below! Make sure to follow The Baltimore Battery on Facebook, Twitter (X) and TikTok, and use the hashtag #baltimorebattery when sharing our content!
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